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- TV manufacturers differ on how smart to make TV sets (3-26-99) (EE Times)
EE Times reports that manufactuers at the CEMA-sponsored Digital Engineering Conference in New Jersey agree there will only be one to two million set-top boxes in use by Y2001. However, EE Times notes that would be "a small number relative to the number of televisions in use." EE Times quotes CEMA engineer George Hanover's observation that "the set-top box is an unnatural act visited on the consumer."
Hmm. Others predict that there will be somewhat more set-top boxes by Y2001 (click here for timeline). Also, cable and satellite boxes (although not interactive) as well as videogame consoles have been around for a while. So, set-tops in general may not be too unnatural. Some would say digital TV sets with full built-in interactive functions may not have much of an immediate future (see below). Nonetheless, mass market change to Interactive TV is a change in culture and lifestyle. So, the progress may seem to be slow.
EE Times notes that manufacturers at the conference do not agree on how hardware and services were to be divided among digital TV sets, set-top boxes, and home servers. The problem is that the computer and internet technology that is merging with TV technology tends to change after several months while the TV set is deemed to have a much longer and more consistant lifespan. The wrong mix could turn a digital TV set into an obsolete box.
EE Times cites former CableLabs vice president of advanced platforms and services Laurie Schwartz Priddy (now with TCI) as describing a baseline digital TV set providing one-way video and video-on-demand. Everything else could go into a set-top box depending on the demand for other functions and services. EE Times also cites consultant Bernard Lechner's suggestion that next-generation digital TV sets be marketed as two-box units where a control console box is replaced every three years. (Lechner presumedly means some sort of set-top box when he refers to a "control console.") However, Lechner opines the TV manufacturer's profit margins may erode because of changes to the control console.
What will happen is what Lechner appears to be talking about, but it may not necessarily be the TV manufactuer who will be making both the digital TV set and the set-top box. Some manufacturers may be large enough and may have the technical capability to make both TV sets and set-top boxes, but others may not have the capacity or the capability. The consumer may see the same brandname on various TV sets and set-top boxes, but the components may be separately made by different companies and manufacturers. Companies and manufactuers will do what they each do best where their individual products may be sold under a particular brandname (which is how various electronics products are sold now) or may be sold with a certain compatibility seal or logo. For instance, consumers who may only be comfortable with a particular brandname may choose to buy digital TV sets and set-top boxes from a Sony or a RCA. Other consumers may choose to mix and match different brandname component products, but all of those components may bear a compatibility logo or seal like a NetGem or a WebTV logo (such as the Sony, Philips, and Mitsubishi internet terminals for WebTV). Other consumers may simply look at the manufacturer's documentation to see if an interactive set-top box will work with their digital TV set or with their particular cable or satellite TV service. Cable and satellite TV services may advertise that their particular services work best with particular products. Manfacturers may say their products work with every service. Etc. Etc.
As costs come down, as technology miniaturizes components, and when uniform standards mature and push different proprietary standards aside, everything may eventually be put "inside" the TV set and where all of the changing functions of a set-top may be put into something like a PCMCIA card attachment (which may have to be sold separately as a "component") that slides into a slot on the TV set. It may be a quite a while before there is that sort of "integration" for Interactive TV since cost and demand will drive the evolution of the TV set and anything attached to the TV set (and you may want to stay away from the temptation of turning the TV into a complicated "computer"). Until then, the market may dictate components in the form of the TV set and the set-top box. The COST of products, i.e. what the consumer has to pay, will be upper most in the everyday consumer's mind and the consumer will most likely buy his or her interactive and digital TV system in component parts - one component part at a time. -ruel - Strategic Analytics: all-in-one fully integrated digital TVs have no future; instead, get a set-top box (3-24-99) (Electronic Times)
Electronic Times cites Strategic Analytic's interactive home services director David Mercer as indicating, "The strategies of TV manufacturers have reflected their needs rather than the needs of the marketplace. The TV has effectively been a dumb monitor for many years, and the arrival of digital will not change this.... [S]ervice providers will continue to favour set-top boxes because of their need to build audiences quickly without waiting for consumers to change TVs." Electronics Times also cites Strategic Analytic's January 1999 report on set-top boxes and dumb terminals.
IMHO, this is correct. Consumers will generally buy in components and will not necessarily buy all-in-one fully integrated digital TV sets. Depending on how much money a consumer may want to spend, the consumer will buy a TV set first, a VCR next, and then maybe a set-top box for the Internet access and enhanced television functions. Just think about how consumers put together audio-stereo component systems: they buy components one at a time. Consumers will not necessarily buy all-in-one fully integrated digital TV sets particularly if such one-unit packages are very expensive as one would expect them to be. (This is a point that has confused people who think about interactive TV when they quickly dismiss interactive TV because they think of expensive all-in-one fully integrated digital TV sets; they should instead be thinking about consumers' components-buying habits.) Buying individual components one at a time, such as buying a set-top box, is cheaper and more manageable for the everyday consumer's budget. -ruel - Interactive TV Top.Box.News
From the
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Ruel's Selected News Items & Comments:
WILL YOU GET AN
ALL-IN-ONE FULLY
INTEGRATED
INTERACTIVE
DIGITAL TV SET
-OR-
WILL YOU GET A
DIGITAL TV SET
AND THEN GET
AN INTERACTIVE
SET-TOP BOX:
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