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- GENERAL INSTRUMENT IN THE MIDDLE OF DIGITAL TV & INTERACTIVE CONVERGENCE TECHNOLOGIES (11-12-98) (ruel)
General Instrument's VP Thomas J. Lynch for Satellite & Broadcast Network Systems spoke about digital television before the Software Industry Council in San Diego. Lynch noted how "digital TV was more than pretty pictures," but also included opportunities for various interactive functions such as electronic program guides, augmented programming (pseudo interactivity as well as combined data & video), high-speed internet access via the PC or advanced digital settop, video-on-demand, "webtv" with combined internet and broadcast, and electronic commerce.
Lynch also stated, "There are hurdles [for digital TV], but digital TV is moving." Lynch outlined that hurdles and challenges for digital TV include making sub-$2000 digital TV sets, cable compatibility (there are at least 18 different HDTV formats), completion of standards (including copy protection rules), and resolution of the cable TV "must carry" rule.
With 25 million TV sets sold every year, Lynch noted that like with the introduction of color TV, digital TV will most likely push the older TV sets to other rooms of the home. As for PC-TV computer systems, Lynch said, "It is imminent that there will be PCs [offered at retail] with cable modems installed." He also noted that there are or will be ATSC-compatible TV tuner cards for computers for viewing digital TV. And with regard to the question as to whether people will really want "pretty pictures" or interactive digital TV, Lynch indicated that it was perhaps a "cultural thing" whether people want passive "couch-potato" TV viewing or active PC-type usage.
Lynch summarized digital TV provides multiple channels for more consumer choice, opportunities for more data pipes to the home, and the convergence of TV and PC means more opportunities for integrated applications.
Click Here for General Instrument's WHITE PAPER on DTV. This is PDF file that requires Adobe Acrobat Reader for computers.
SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA'S WHITE PAPER ON CABLE TV & INTERACTIVE TV:
- Scientific-Atlanta releases White Paper on Role of Cable TV in providing Interactive Services (7-21-98) (PRNewswire)
- Scientific-Atlanta's white paper outlines six requirements for a successful interactive digital cable network (7-21-98) (SciAtl)
- Scientific-Atlanta white paper: "The Interactive Digital Network: More Than Just A Set-Top Decision" (7-21-98) (SciAtl)
The white paper prescribes the following six technical requirements for a successful interactive digital cable network: (1) high bandwidth; (2) a real-time, scalable reverse path; (3) public/private key security and authentication; (4) end-to-end Internet Protocol; (5) sophisticated network control; and (6) advanced, two-way set-tops. "To meet competitive demands, the interactive digital network must satisfy requirements in these six key areas." The set-top box is only one part of the formula. The other technical components are in the network and that is what a lot of the technical success will rely on. The other component of overall success that is not really talked about in the white paper is the content provided to viewers, i.e., the available information, data, and entertainment that will be presented to viewers and HOW that content will be presented to viewers. A real present-day success story of quality set-top CONTENT is the WebTV Networks -- they have had a great HEAD START on how to present content via a set-top box (WebTV is not just a box or a network, but also a content organizer and content presenter; WebTV has been very successful in obtaining partnerships with a multitude of content providers). Also look for AOL to move in as a content player in the cable arena. Of course, there will be other players in the content game. Technical success is one thing (if it works, it works). Content success is perhaps the more interesting story.... (For a related article on Internet content organization, also see Portals as Net's TV stations (7-21-98) (CNET).)
IDC & CNET REPORTS ON POSSIBLE TIME FRAMES FOR SET-TOPS:
- IDC finds information appliance market poised for mass market acceptance (10-20-98) (IDC)
- IDC says set-tops to take off during next five years (10-20-98) (CNET)
IDC predicts several waves of Interactive TV device distribution: (1) cable forcing millions of new set-top boxes onto the market to cable subscribers (this has already begun); (2) internet-capable game machines such as from Sony, Sega, and others coming into the market; (3) U.S. retail sales of the new cable TV set-top boxes beginning in July 2000 as mandated by the U.S. Congress (cable to stop leasing boxes by 2005); and (4) then an introduction of actual Net TV sets with integrated internet functions previously requiring set-tops. CNET reports IDC as predicting, "Interactive television, in the form of cable, satellite, or retail set-top boxes, will grow from 1.4 million units in 1998 to 11.5 million units by 2000.... Sales of ... interactive gaming consoles, which will offer online gaming and some Web browsing, are expected to jump from 848,000 units in 1998 to almost 15 million in 2002." IDC VP of consumer devices research Sean Kaldor says that WebTV will not disappear because of the cable set-top roll-out because WebTV offers more robust features than the early versions of the new cable boxes. CNET reports Kaldor as saying, "Cable companies will do what they feel comfortable with, a lot of solutions that will even be free.... WebTV knows what's going on. They don't box themselves in. They're going to continue to make partnerships."MORE TIME FRAME PREDICTIONS AND CNET TURNABOUT ON SET-TOPS:
- Hewlett-Packard CEO describes PC as "Pretty Crude" and becoming obsolete; computer manufacturers looking towards information appliances (12-2-98) (CNET)
- INT'L DATA CORP. PREDICTS PC DOMINANCE WILL END IN 6 YEARS AS NET APPLIANCES BECOME HOT COMMODITIES (6-22-98) (CNN/IDG)
- CNET Report: Internet-cum-TV, a technology that will take over (8-6-98) (CNET)
One year ago, CNET said "PC-TV" convergence technology, which they lumped set-top boxes into, would fail. They now say they were really talking about expensive large-screen television-computer systems, but back then a year ago CNET did not understand how set-top boxes are the way of the future. (This is one of those instances where I would like to say, "I told you so!") The CNET folks now say they understand the "fine distinction" (their words, but it's really a BIG distinction) between the two. The CNET folks finally see the light. THINK TV.
CNET predicts the set-top "takeover" will be in five years which I would forecast as a general market time frame and which time frame also seems to be the conventional thinking among market players according to email I receive from people around the world. I would also say watch for forward momentatum to begin to move with the new U.S. Fall 98 television season when people see how the WebTV Plus is to really work, then watch for further implemenation of interactive cable TV in the coming year, and then watch for things to really take off in one to three years among mainstream consumers. The action will be on two major fronts around the world: telephone-line based set-tops and cable-tv set-tops.(Click Here for more Interactive TV timeline information.)
ALSO LARGE-SCREEN TV COMPUTER SETS DON'T SELL (BUT COMPUTER MANUFACTURERS WILL STILL WANT IN ON THE DIGITAL TV MARKET):
- Large-Screen television-computer sets don't sell; Set-Top boxes are better match for Consumer Demand; TV Tuner cards for computers also expected to do well (7-24-98) (CNET)
This article brings to mind what critics and naysayers of set-top products have said when criticizing the WebTV and similar set-top products: The naysayers have said the WebTV and similar products will not sell because buyers will instead buy TV sets that have the set-top's capabilities built in. Well, the large-screen television-computer sets would show that the critics and naysayers are WRONG. My guess is that most people generally buy components one at a time. For instance, a consumer may buy the TV first for the best price, then later buy a VCR machine when she or he has some more money to spend, and then buy a set-top box like the WebTV later on. One piece at a time. I think people will continue to want to buy one piece at a time. (It's also my guess that critics and naysayers do buy one piece at a time and will continue to buy one piece at a time. )
[BUT WATCH FOR COMPUTER MANUFACTURERS TO TRY TO CASH IN ON THE DIGITAL TV MARKET WITH LESS-EXPENSIVE POWER PC-TV BOXES MASQUERADING AS DIGITAL TV SETS....]
- Interactive TV Top.Box.News
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